Lok Sabha election 2024 will be held in India from 19 April 2024 to 1 June 2024 to elect the 543 members of the 18th Lok Sabha. The elections will be held in seven phases and the results will be announced on 4 June 2024..
The exit polls for the Lok Sabha election 2024 predict a historic third term for the BJP-led NDA government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the alliance expected to win 350-400 seats[1][2]. However, the opposition INDIA bloc has rejected these predictions, with leaders like Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, and Mamata Banerjee dismissing the exit polls as “Modi media poll” and “fake polls”[2][5].
Despite the projected NDA victory, the exit polls show a significant decline in Muslim support for the alliance, dropping from 9% in 2019 to just 6% in 2024[3]. Conversely, the INDIA bloc is expected to substantially increase its Muslim vote share from 52% to 76%[3]. The NDA is also projected to gain more votes from Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes, and general caste voters[3].
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has criticized the exit polls, stating that they were “manufactured at home” two months ago and have no value[5]. She believes that the BJP’s attempts at polarization and spreading false information about Muslims taking away quotas of SC, ST, and OBCs will not translate into Muslim votes for the party[5].
The exit polls were released on June 1, 2024, after the conclusion of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections[1][4]. The actual results will be announced on June 4, 2024[1][4].
Citations:
[1] https://mccrectt2020.in/lok-sabha-election-2024-exit-poll-results/
[2] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/lok-sabha-elections-2024-opposition-rejects-exit-polls-results-as-pollsters-predict-3rd-term-for-pm-modi/articleshow/110639717.cms
[3] https://www.indiatoday.in/diu/story/exit-poll-result-lok-sabha-parliament-election-muslim-vote-share-bjp-nda-india-bloc-congress-axis-my-india-2547121-2024-06-02
[4] https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/lok-sabha-elections-2024-live-updates-june-2-exit-polls-nda-3rd-term-narendra-modi-indi-alliance-rahul-gandhi-101717287170697.html
[5] https://www.deccanherald.com/elections/india/lok-sabha-elections-2024-exit-polls-have-no-value-manufactured-at-home-two-months-back-mamata-3048708
how accurate have past exit polls been in predicting Lok Sabha election results
Past exit polls have had mixed accuracy in predicting Lok Sabha election results:
- In 2004, exit polls predicted a comfortable NDA majority, but the Congress-led UPA won[2][5].
- In 2014, exit polls underestimated the BJP’s performance, with the NDA winning 336 seats compared to poll predictions of 261-289[1][2].
- In 2019, most exit polls correctly predicted an NDA victory, but overestimated the UPA’s seat tally[1][3].
Some specific examples of exit poll inaccuracies:
- In 2015 Bihar assembly elections, exit polls indicated a tight race but the RJD-JDU-Congress alliance won decisively[2].
- In 2015 Delhi assembly polls, exit polls predicted an AAP majority but underestimated their 67/70 seat landslide[2].
- In 2023 Chhattisgarh, exit polls predicted a Congress win but the BJP unexpectedly regained control[2].
The accuracy of individual pollsters has also varied:
- In 2019, News24’s Chanakya and India Today-Axis My India most accurately predicted the NDA’s seat range[3].
- Other pollsters like News18’s IPSOS, Times Now’s VMR, Republic TV’s CVoter and ABP Nielsen underestimated the BJP’s performance[3].
So while exit polls can provide insights, their predictions have often diverged from actual results. Factors like sampling errors, response bias and late swings in voter sentiment can impact their accuracy[2][5]. The 2024 exit polls should be viewed with caution until the final results are announced on June 4.
Citations:
[1] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/lok-sabha-elections-comparing-accuracy-of-exit-polls-from-2019-to-2014/articleshow/110610686.cms
[2] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/lok-sabha/india/how-accurate-are-exit-polls-here-are-six-times-when-exit-poll-predictions-proved-wrong/articleshow/110613461.cms
[3] https://www.thequint.com/elections/2024-exit-polls-lok-sabha-elections-accuracy-2019-bjp-congress-nda-india
[4] https://www.deccanherald.com/elections/india/lok-sabha-elections-2024-exit-polls-have-no-value-manufactured-at-home-two-months-back-mamata-3048708
[5] https://www.deccanherald.com/elections/india/lok-sabha-elections-2024-what-history-shows-us-about-the-accuracy-of-exit-polls-3047807